Enter your win rate, how big your average win and loss are in R (1R = what you planned to risk on a trade) and how much of the account you risk per trade. You get your expectancy, the win rate you need to break even, and 5,000 simulated runs of the next trades: likely losing streaks, drawdowns, the range of outcomes and the chance of hitting your "ruin" level. It works for crypto or any market. Everything is calculated in your browser and nothing you type is sent anywhere. Educational only, not financial advice.
Load example uses made-up numbers: 45% win rate, 2R average win, 1R average loss, 1% risk, 200 trades. "Use my journal numbers" reads the trades you logged in the Trade Journal in this browser (free: last 30 days, Pro: all history).
Enter your win rate, average win and risk per trade, then press Calculate.
Before fees. Each row assumes your average loss in R stays the same and the average win is that multiple of it.
Expectancy is what the average trade makes, in R: win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. 45% wins at 2R with 1R losses is 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 × 1 = +0.35R per trade. Times your risk per trade in dollars, that's the average dollar result per trade. Above 0 is an edge; at 0 or below, no position size makes it profitable.
Break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss). With 2R winners and 1R losers you need to win more than 1 in 3 trades. Profit factor = gross wins ÷ gross losses.
The simulation plays your numbers forward 5,000 times (fewer for very long runs). Each trade risks your % of the current balance, so it shrinks after losses and grows after wins. Wins and losses come up at random at your win rate. It counts how often the balance ever fell to your "ruin" level, the worst losing streak and the deepest drop from a high (max drawdown) in each run, and shows the middle (median) and a bad-luck (95th percentile) case. The random numbers are seeded, so the same inputs and the same link always show the same results.
Assumptions: every trade wins or loses exactly the average amounts, trades are independent, no fees or slippage beyond what's in your average loss. Real results vary more, so treat the numbers as a floor for how rough things can get. A win rate measured over a few dozen trades is itself uncertain; try it 5–10 points lower to see how much that matters.
Sizing a single trade? The position size calculator turns your risk % and stop into a size. Plan exits with the exit planner, and count costs with the trading fee calculator. More: trading discipline and the glossary.
Next step: log real trades with their R in Daily Edge, a free trading journal that runs in your browser, then come back and press "Use my journal numbers".
Daily Edge Pro ($9 one-time, paid by card or bitcoin) adds your full journal history and stats such as profit factor, expectancy and max drawdown, plus journal CSV export and JSON backup.